By Dave Trecker
Climate change is always a hot-button issue, but never more so than with an election approaching and Democrat and Republican candidates taking very different positions.
With the interest growing, it might be instructive to see where things stand and where they are heading. How is the planet making out?
The news isn’t good. The planet is burning up. Earlier this year the world blew past the 1.5-degree Celsius increase the Paris Accords warned was a red line in the sand never to be breeched. The United Nations reported 2023 atmospheric temperatures were 1.66 degrees higher than in preindustrial times.
Current policies have done nothing to change this.
And at the current pace, Climate Action Tracker predicts temperatures will increase another 2.5-2.9 degrees by 2100. This is already beginning to show. May of this year was the hottest on record. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration said the oceans are also heating up at an unprecedented rate, having reached their highest temperatures since the 1800s.
What’s responsible for this? As most know, greenhouse gases, largely from burning fossil fuels for power and electricity, are to blame. And China is the main culprit. China emits more carbon dioxide, the most prevalent greenhouse gas, than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined. And those emissions, largely from coal, have increased steadily since 2015. China is continuing to build coal-fired power plants at a torrid pace to stoke its economic growth. It currently accounts for 53% of the world’s coal usage.
Coal isn’t the only bad actor. Petroleum and natural gas are also contributors to global warming. And, like coal, use of these hydrocarbons is also growing. Led by Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries, oil drilling looks to continue at a robust pace, with global demand growing at a million barrels a day for the foreseeable future. Exxon Mobil projects humans will use as much crude oil in 2050 as they do today. Green energy will grow but so will hydrocarbons. And it’s interesting to note that fracking is no longer a bad word. Both political parties are now embracing hydraulic fracturing (or at least accepting it).
Coincident with the outlook for crude oil is the collapse of the electric vehicle market. EVs are no longer in demand. Government subsidies haven’t offset a host of operating issues, leading Consumer Reports to rate EVs “the least reliable” of all vehicles, with 79% more problems than internal-combustion vehicles. And fuel cost differentials are enormous.
With the collapse in demand, EV manufacturers are cutting back big-time. Ford and General Motors are refocusing on gasoline-powered cars and trucks. Fisker, an EV startup, just filed for bankruptcy. Locally, Hertz is selling off EVs at big losses and using proceeds to buy combustion-engine cars for rental.
Another problem is that the courts aren’t helping. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the “Chevron” ruling in July, hobbling government attempts to fix climate change by executive action. The Environmental Protection Agency can no longer simply issue directives.
One final observation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the free market is now favoring investments that treat not the causes, but instead the symptoms of climate change – how to control flooding, address extreme heat, shore up infrastructure. That’s a sharp about-face.
Overall, the outlook isn’t good. There are no simple solutions for slowing climate change. It will be interesting to see what role the elections play.
Dave Trecker of Naples is a Ph.D. chemist who has written extensively about climate change. This opinion piece was originally published by the Fort Myers News-Press, which is a media partner of The Invading Sea.Â
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