By Rafe Pomerance, ReThink Energy Florida
Did you know that Florida has already experienced one foot of sea-level rise since the 1970s, and another foot is expected by mid-century? Floridians see it happening: sunny day flooding, beach erosion, and record-setting storm surge that wipes out communities from more powerful, slower moving hurricanes.
Many Florida leaders have been focused on building higher seawalls and raising roads, but unless concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are stabilized at the lowest levels possible, sea level will continue to rise, reducing effectiveness of resilience measures being taken today.
We need to keep Florida above water.
I’ve been involved in climate advocacy for more than 40 years. In 2018, a special issue of New York Times Magazine called Losing Earth recounted the early days which included my role in helping sound the alarm that resulted in the first well publicized congressional hearings on climate change.
I’ve participated in developing many policy options. Now I’m working on sharing an idea that has the potential to reframe the climate issue: setting an upper limit on sea-level rise in Florida.
Just like the U.N. Conference of the Parties set an upper limit to the amount of warming our planet can withstand with the Paris Climate Accord — 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius – Florida needs to set an upper limit on the amount of sea-level rise that it can withstand and still have a viable economy. An upper limit on sea-level rise makes it clear to populations what’s at stake if we fail to act.
I’m looking forward to addressing the Southeast Florida Climate Leadership Summit in Fort Lauderdale this week where I will ask city, county, and state officials to acknowledge there is an upper limit to the amount of sea-level rise that is tolerable in Florida, and encourage them to create policy aiming towards a clean energy future.
Florida’s economy is the 15th largest in the world as of 2021, and its global reach as a popular tourist destination that is in the crosshairs of climate disruption gives it a powerful platform.
In 2019, prior to coronavirus lockdowns, Florida’s tourism industry contributed $96.5 billion dollars to the state’s economy and supported over 1.6 million jobs, according to Visit Florida. With that kind of money on the line, it only makes sense for leaders to protect Florida from sea-level rise.
Beyond two feet of sea-level rise becomes exponentially more expensive to manage. Higher taxes and insurance costs will be necessary to endure more flood disruptions, sewage system overflows, and sea water infiltration of drinking water. Other major risk factors include increased flooding and property loss, reduced tax base, immobilized traffic, eroded shorelines, and salt water intrusion harming estuary ecosystems and wildlife.
Technologies are available to reduce and ultimately eliminate the carbon dioxide emissions that are driving Florida’s sea-level rise. We need state leaders to declare an upper limit of 2 feet, and then implement widespread renewable energy, especially from solar panels and wind, and advance vehicle electrification through new infrastructure and tax breaks on electric vehicles. The federal Inflation Reduction Act provides huge financial incentives for Florida to transition to a clean energy economy.
Florida should be taking a national and global leadership position on setting an upper limit on sea-level rise. The state is a low-lying peninsula that depends on the action of not only other states, but other countries. Florida can galvanize action to protect its future as a safe and economically sound place to live.
We can keep Florida above water by setting an upper limit of 2 feet of sea-level rise, before it is too late.
Rafe Pomerance is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and has been a climate advocate for over 40 years. He is an advisor to the Upper Limit Project of ReThink Energy Florida. www.rethinkenergyflorida.org/keep-florida-above-water/.
“The Invading Sea” is the opinion arm of the Florida Climate Reporting Network, a collaborative of news organizations across the state focusing on the threats posed by the warming climate.
I have the greatest respect for Rafe’s advocacy work and early leadership on trying to slow global warming. However this essay about keeping Florida’s sea level rise (SLR) to two feet has two very misleading elements.
First is the suggestion that Florida’s SLR is determined by what happens in Florida, particularly energy policy. Except for modest effects of localized land subsidence or changing ocean currents, Florida’s sea level will change with global sea level. The main factor for global SLR is the melting of the mega ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, and to a lesser degree, thermal expansion of the oceans. Both are largely determined by the increase in global average temperature which has been steadily rising decade by decade. Even if Florida implemented 100% renewable energy, it would have hardly any effect on the rate of global warming, and thus the melt rate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
The second misleading point is suggesting there is still time to stop global SLR at less than two feet. The 2022 NOAA Sea Level Rise Technical Report made quite clear that a foot of SLR is already “committed” (locked in) by mid century. What happens by 2100 depends on global reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Looking ahead to end of century, two feet is their “best case” and seven feet is the worst case, based on current trend of global emissions.
It should be noted that the rate of GHG emissions continues to rise. In the last few months there is increasing evidence from Antarctica and Greenland that the ice sheets are melting faster than anticipated, potentially raising the higher estimates.
All of this should underscore the importance of Florida doing its part to slow the total global emissions while it begins to design and engineer for the 2 – 7 foot of higher sea level anticipated by 2100.